A Blue Wave Based on What?

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RUH: Boy, this rally was another one of the Trump special — Trump talked about the fact that there’s this blue wave coming, and he doesn’t see it. He sees a red wave. Here are the two sound bites that relate to this. Number 1.

THE PRESIDENT: You are great people. You work hard, you pay your taxes, you do all these things, and you were forgotten. They forgot about you. And you’re the smartest people. You’re the smartest people. They talk about the elite, the elite. Did you ever see the elite? They’re not elite. (boos) You are the elite. You are the elite. (cheers) You’re smarter than they are. You make bigger incomes. You’ve got everything going, you know? So let them keep calling — you go to the best schools. You do a tremendous job. You own companies. You work for tremendous salaries. You’re talented, with your hands, with your mind. And then you hear, “The elite has just said.” The elite? They’re more elite than me? I have better everything than they have, including this. (cheers) And I became president, and they didn’t, meaning you became president. (cheers).

RUSH: The kicker. The kicker.

THE PRESIDENT: And it’s driving them crazy. (cheers)

RUSH: “And it’s driving them crazy.” And the applause went on and on. Next here is the prexy talking about blue wave versus red wave.

THE PRESIDENT: They’re talking about this blue wave. (laughter) I don’t think so. If the Democrats get in, they’re gonna raise your taxes, you’re gonna have crime all over the place, you’re gonna have people pouring across the border. So why would that be a blue wave? I think it could be a red wave.

RUSH: And the crowd responded. And that’s what I was alluding to earlier. It’s a good point. If the Democrats win, what are we gonna get? The Democrats are basing this blue wave on one thing: Trump hatred. The resistance. They’re not basing it on people’s desire for Democrat policies. Now, isn’t that kind of flimsy? They think they live in a world where everybody now hates Trump.

It’s what they tell themselves. They live in a world where everybody now realizes the mistake they made voting for Trump. They live in a world where in their view everybody is embarrassed of Trump every day and wishes that they could take back their vote and will

This is what they’re telling us is the momentum and the energy and the Republicans just can’t compete with it. “I mean, the Republicans, they won two years ago.  Complacency sets in,” and it is statistically true that the party in power traditionally loses some seats.  The average is 15.  Over the years, the average number of House seats lost in the first House elections after a presidential race is 15 seats.  Well, everybody thinks now that the Republicans are gonna lose 50 to 60 and that the Democrats are gonna come in and take over.

But it isn’t based on policy.  Noooo.  It’s based on Trump hatred.  It’s based on the fact that people are embarrassed of Donald Trump.  “They don’t like Trump’s tweeting.  They don’t like Trump’s rallies.  They don’t like Trump insults people.  They don’t like the way Trump talks about the witch hunt.  They don’t like way Trump talks about Jeff Sessions.  They don’t like the way Trump talks about CNN.  They don’t like the way Trump talks about LeBron James.  They’re embarrassed about it, and they can’t wait to get rid of Trump.”

Meanwhile, over here, the country has experienced an economic rebirth, with people who haven’t been working in 20 years finding jobs — after the Democrats and their president specifically said the jobs weren’t coming back.  We’re coming off eight years where the existing president, the administration was painting a bleak picture of America in decline.  Best days behind us.  “Some jobs just are not coming back.  It’s just the new way of the world.”

The economic redirection in this country is dramatic.  So I don’t know.  Do you find it plausible — and a lot of people do, by the way. Do you find it plausible the Republicans could lose the House and policy have nothing to do with the election, that the Republicans are gonna lose the House because a lot of people now regret voting for Trump and can’t wait to vote against him by voting against the next Republican they can vote against?

“The only way to hurt Trump is to vote for Democrats.”  This is the logic we’re being asked to believe.  In fact… In fact, there is a new theory being tested here in the Drive-By Media, and you know what that theory is?  The theory is that Trump is doing all this stuff to purposely lose the House, that Trump wants to lose the House so that the Democrats will get into power and start showing themselves trying to raise taxes, trying to impeach Trump, doing what they do.

It’s all because this is how Trump thinks he can guarantee his own reelection in 2020 is to have the Democrats win the House and have them be going absolutely insane and nuts each and every day running the House of Representatives.  The left, the Drive-By Media is starting to circulate that theory that Trump is actually out there trying to sabotage the Republicans and their efforts to hold the House.  Because Trump thinks the Democrats winning and bringing his agenda to a screeching halt will be the fastest way to get him reelected.  There’s a little bit more to it than that, but that’s being bandied about.

BREAK TRANSCRIPT

RUSH:  Now, you know the theory on the party in power losing 15 seats? That’s the average.  The party in power, after a presidential transition loses 15 seats. So President X gets elected; the next midterms two years later, his party loses 15 seats in the House on average.  The, quote-unquote, political consultant/expert reason for this is that voters want a balanced government, and they want a check on the new president that they just voted for two years ago.  So the theory holds, people go out; vote for president. They elect X.

Two years later, they want X stopped.  This is the ongoing theory.  Does that make sense to you?  You go out, you hire a new engineer for your radio station; two years later, you want the guy to start screwing up, right?  It doesn’t make any sense.  But this is the expert political consultant theory.  The secondary theory is that voters are disappointed in the person they elected, and they’re angry.  That, I think, has more to do with it than this gobbledygook (chuckles) that they want balanced government.  You know, there’s no way to ensure balance.

That’s a hell of a thing to vote for.  You live in a congressional district, one of 435. Your guy is up for election or reelection, and you’re going into the voting place and you say, “Yeah, I really want balanced government; so I’m gonna vote opposite the president in power’s party, okay?  Yeah, because I want balance.”  One little district, you think you’re gonna balance? I’ve always thought that reasoning was absurd.

But one thing I do know is you can throw those things out now with Trump in office.  This is what they can’t manage to understand and accept in the swamp.  Even after a year and a half of seeing that Trump is not held in check by their usual balances and stops — that Trump is somebody they still can’t define, they can’t explain — they still think they want to apply their time-honored formulas and systems to things, and those have been blown up.

I think one thing that they are never gonna get, one thing they’re never gonna understand, the one thing they’re never gonna admit is that so many Americans want the swamp drained.  But even the Republicans are going along. “Yeah, it’s looking bad for us.  Oh, yeah!  We might even lose the Senate, too,” some of them are saying.  But, remember, there’s some Republicans that want to lose everything because they don’t want Trump to succeed.  It’s really convoluted out there.

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RUSH: The theory that Trump wants to lose the midterms has been started by Walter Shapiro.  He used to be at USA Today, now he’s at Roll Call, and the thinking is a Democrat House and Senate would allow Trump to blame everything from North Korean nukes to Chinese tariffs to whatever else went wrong on Chuck You Schumer and Nancy Pelosi and thereby win reelection.  That’s the theory.

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RUSH: This Jeff in Longview, Texas.  Jeff, great to have you, sir.  How are you?

CALLER:  Good, sir.  Thank you for taking my call.

RUSH:  You bet.  Great to have you here.

CALLER:  Thank you.  You mentioned earlier a theory that had been put forth by someone about President Trump wanting to lose the House this November in hopes of improving his chances of winning his own election in 2020.  My thought is, unless people have not been paying attention, President Trump is a winner.  His entire attitude, outlook, behavior is, “I’m a winner.  I’m gonna win at everything I do,” and he’s pretty much proven that for the last 18 months.

RUSH:  That’s exactly right.  But you know what this is?  This is another glaring example of how the swamp just can’t adapt to an outsider being there.  They still have to try to apply their old, stale ways of analyzing things and projecting things to Trump.  When Shapiro… It’s Walter Shapiro of Roll Call. When he says, “You know, Trump might want to lose so then he could blame everything wrong on Pelosi and Schumer…” Trump doesn’t count on things going wrong.

He doesn’t intend for things to go wrong because, as you said, he expects to win.  But this is the way the swamp looks at things.  Shapiro is telling you what your standard, everyday, ordinary Republican or Democrat politician might do if they sense they’re gonna lose anyway: Go ahead and make it happen so you can blame ’em.  That’s how the swamp works.  But Trump is not of the swamp.

CALLER:  No, he’s not, and you’re absolutely correct.

RUSH:  Well, I always am.

CALLER:  You look at the rallies that President Trump is holding all around the country, and you see fired-up people.  You see the enthusiasm.  You see the positive attitude.  You saw all of these people who are out there supporting and cheering him on, and he’s not working to defeat Republicans, Mr. Limbaugh.  He is working harder than ever to help Republicans win.

RUSH:  Exactly.  Exactly.  I think he would love to overthrow this idea that the party in power loses seats in the first election after he wins the presidency.  I think he’d love to blow that out of the water.

CALLER:  If any president can do it, he can, because the amount of support he’s putting out for people is phenomenal.  You didn’t see that in the midterms of the last president in office.

RUSH:  No. This guy outworks everybody.

CALLER: Yeah.

RUSH: He outworks everybody.  And, I tell you what.  I’m looking forward to election night all over again.  These people think there’s gonna be a blue wave, the Democrats are gonna sweep to power? What, on the same basis that they were gonna sweep to power in 2016?  They’re gonna sweep to power the basis the Republicans are hated, Democrats are loved, Democrats are entitled to power.

CALLER:  (laughing) Mr. Limbaugh, if they’re looking at the same polls they looked at in 2016 — the same pollsters, the same data — they’re going to be in for a very rude shock come November because I’m going to go out on a limb here and I’m going to predict something.  I’m not only thinking that the Republicans are going to keep the House but they’re going to gain seats in not only the House but the Senate.

RUSH:  How many?  How many?

CALLER:  Call it half a dozen in the House and maybe two in the Senate.

RUSH:  Six House seats they’re gonna pick up, two in the Senate.  We’ll make a note here.  This is Jeff in Longview, Texas.  I appreciate the call.

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RUSH: Now, I want to go back to the blue wave, red wave business. Trump at his rally on Saturday night, or “Sardy” as they say where I grew up, Sardy night in Lewis Center, Ohio, Trump talked about, “I don’t believe there’s gonna be a blue wave. I think there’s gonna be a red wave.” And he said, “Look at our economy. We’ve got rising employment, we got rising wages and salary, we have a gross domestic product that’s going through the roof, new trade deals. And how is that gonna lose,” he said.

So Steve Schmidt is our first sound bite here. Steve Schmidt ran the John McCain campaign. Steve Schmidt is a so-called Republican, although he’s not a new one. Did you hear this, Mr. Snerdley? He left the Republican Party. Now, he actually did it years ago. But he only made it official. He’s been on MSNBC, anti-Trump and anti-Republican for quite a while. In fact, there was a story two or three weeks ago that official Republican circles in Washington were abuzz — bzz bzz bzz bzz bzz bzz bzz — with Steve Schmidt leaving the party.

And if that’s what causes them to go abuzz, ’cause that’s the biggest nonevent I can think of. He’s already left the Republican Party and his value to the Republican Party starting with the McCain campaign has been demonstrably zero! But that makes him ideal for the Drive-By Media to seek his analysis, to seek his input, to seek his brilliance in analyzing what Trump is doing. So Friday night, Bill Maher Real Time HBO, having a discussion about Trump riling up his base against the media. Here’s what Steve Schmidt said.

SCHMIDT: We’re seeing somebody go to mass rallies, constantly lie to insight fervor in a cult of personality base. This is deliberate. This is an assault on objective truth. And once you get people to surrender their sovereignty, that what is true is what the leader says it true, what is true is what the leader believes is true, even though what’s true is staring you in the face. When that happens you’re no longer living in a democratic republic. Thirty-five percent of this country has checked out. They have joined a cult. They are obedient. They’re obedient to the leader.

RUSH: Now, I’m gonna go back to one of my original theories. Why are so many people ticked off because they’ve been left out. They think they’ve been left out. Steve Schmidt, Trump’s got no use for Schmidt so Schmidt’s got no use for Trump. Since Trump has on no use for Schmidt, Schmidt now has to call Trump essentially Hitler or some tinhorn dictator. He’s leading a cult. You people voted for Trump, you don’t even know enough to know when Trump is lying to you and you believe everything Trump says and that is dangerous, and that leaves us with a cult. We’re no longer living in a democratic Republic. Well, we may as well cancel elections, then, right? We’re not living in a democratic Republic.

Here’s Mike Murphy, another Republican consultant. He’s the guy that Jeb Bush hired to help him win the Republican nomination in 2006. How many delegates did Jeb get, Mr. Snerdley? He got three. How much money did Jeb Bush raise and spend on those three delegates? I think it was a hundred million dollars, I think. It was pretty close to it. I think maybe 25 million bought the exclamation point behind Jeb on all the bumper stickers.

Anyway, this is Meet the Press with F. Chuck Todd saying to Murphy, “You know, in these primaries, they’re fighting over who is closer to Trump.” Trump is killing it in the Republican primaries where the Republican candidate is pro-Trump. Trump is killing it. Those guys are winning in these primaries, and that’s what they’re talking about here. In those primaries, they’re fighting over who’s closer to Trump. See, F. Chuck can’t believe it. F. Chuck thinks that any responsible Republican would be running away from Trump as fast as he can.

MURPHY:  Yeah, it’s like a Stalin trial now.

PANELISTS: (chortling)

MURPHY: You know, it’s unbelievable.  It is the new reality of the Republican primary.  Now you come out of this thing from the Trump church in the Republican primary with a big Trump halo. But in the general election, Democrats all hate Trump, and among independents he’s mostly upside down.  So what is your magic light sword in the primary becomes an anchor around your neck in the general.

RUSH:  Okay.  So Trump’s gonna lose again, just like he lost in 2016. The Republicans are gonna lose again just like… They were ignore get shellacked, you remember that?  The Republicans were gonna happen get shellacked.  Elected Republicans from Paul Ryan on down were all expecting Hillary to win, the Democrats to win the House. They were expecting to be a Bob Michel-type party with maybe 130 seats in the House.  They expected to be almost extinct — and they think it’s gonna happen again.  They think the Republicans are gonna get wiped out in November because people can’t wait to vote against Trump.

Here’s Karl Rove, Fox News Sunday Chris Wallace yesterday.  Question: “Where’s the line between legitimately criticizing the media and what the president’s doing right now.”

ROVE:  Look, the ferocity of these generalized slurs, if you will, against the press and the frequency of them is disturbing to me.  I watched the speech.  I lost track about 18 or 19 times that the president went after the press — and every time he did, that crowd roared its approval.  But that crowd represents the hardcore Trump base.  This does not help him with his bigger problem.  Back to the Fox poll: 46, 51 approve.  Twenty-eight percent strongly approve.  Those were the people who are screaming their cheers when he said “enemy of the people.” But 41% strongly disapprove.  That’s why the president’s number are so he’s enraging the opposition while simply reinforcing a much smaller base.

RUSH:  So Trump’s base is getting small.  It’s increasingly out of its mind and unbalanced, motivated by media being the enemy of the people.  Very, very bad.  Very, very bad.  Becoming a cult.  Trump’s upside down.  This is gonna be a bloodbath.  The Republicans have no prayer, no chance as long as Trump’s there.  Everybody’s leaving him in droves.  Here’s Karl Rove.  This was this afternoon, Fox Business Network, Neil Cavuto: Coast to Coast.  Connell McShane was actually sitting in for Cavuto and he’s talking to Rove, and the question is, “I was recently talking with a guest about what districts the president could be most effective campaigning in.  His effectiveness in campaigning in the general seems somewhat limited, but he’s not on the ballot.  So what’s he gonna do?”

ROVE:  If the White House wants to come out of the election with a wind at their backs, first of all, they need to restrain the president from talking about a red wave.  We’ve only had a few elections… Think about it.  In 2002, Republicans gained seats with George W. Bush president. Republicans gained seats in the House and Senate. In 1998, Bill Clinton is under impeachment, and the previous time was 1934 in the midst of the Depression with FDR when the Democrats gained seats in the House and Senate.  Otherwise, the party in power loses seats.  So I think the president will be better positioned by saying, “You know, we got an uphill climb, and we’re gonna do everything we can.”

MCSHANE: Yeah!

RUSH:  Yeah.  Instead of saying it’s like gonna be a red wave.  So Democrats can say blue wave all day long, and it’s not gonna hurt them.  They can go promise their blue wave ’cause they got all the energy. But if Trump says there’s gonna be a red wave, somehow that’s gonna hurt.  What was it that made the Republicans win, gain seats in 2002, folks?  Rove is right.  It’s one of the few times it’s happened.

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RUSH: San Diego.  John.  Great to have you on the EIB Network.  Hi.

CALLER:  Thanks for taking my call.  I’ll get right to the point.  Dianne Feinstein, her driver of 20 years? Okay.  She didn’t know a thing about it.  I’d really love to know the guy’s history, you know, how he was hired. Through a temp agency, the Chinese embassy, off the streets?  I’d really love to know his connections to businesses. You know, as far as Dianne Feinstein’s husband I know the businessman deals with Chinese entities, from what I recall.  I’d like to up the numbers from Jeff from Texas.  I think we’re gonna get at least five Senate seats and probably 15-plus House seats for America.

RUSH:  Oh ho.  Fifteen!

CALLER:  I’m thinking it’s not gonna be this red wave, blue wave.  It’s gonna be the American people.  The silent majority are told to vote Democrat by Comey.  You know what I got to say to him is, “Nuts!  I’m out.”

RUSH:  Oh, yeah, “vote Democrat” by Comey.  James Comey is vastly, vastly unaware of the lack of influence he has with most Americans.  Democrats hate him.  He thinks they love him.  But you think 15 seats that the Republicans are gonna pick up.  Where are you getting that number?

CALLER: (silence)

RUSH: Oh, he hung up.  Well, he said he was gonna get straight to the point.  I wonder what people would do if they didn’t. You know, they say, “I’m gonna get straight to the point.”  “No, don’t.  What were you gonna do before you got straight to the point?” I’m just kidding.  Snerdley tells them to get straight to the point, ’cause the reason is brevity.  You people that call and get through, you want to have impact.

I mean, you want your call to be heard, maybe even be influential.  Get to the point!  That’s what does it.  That’s what we broadcast professionals know instinctively.  Anyway, 15 seats.  I could see maybe seven, pick up seven.  Fifteen?  He said five in the Senate.  You realize this goes totally against the entire status quo, conventional wisdom grain inside the Beltway.  “It’s gonna be a blue wave, and you better love it,” is the thinking.

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RUSH: Steve in Ludington, Michigan. You’re next. It’s great to have you here.

CALLER: Thank you, Rush. An honor and a pleasure to speak with you.

RUSH: Thank you, sir.

CALLER: Another point to consider in this midterm situation, that all elections are turnout. And those who didn’t turn out in the last election thinking Hillary was a shoe-in, whether they be her supporters or Bernie supporters who stayed home because they weren’t happy about what went on in their primary are gonna be mad and they’re gonna turn out in higher numbers is the possibility. And that might account for what they’re talking about in a blue wave. Now, I don’t see it happening myself, ’cause I think Trump’s base is much more solid than that, and I think folks will still be upset that, you know, he got in, but —

RUSH: Oh.

CALLER: — I don’t think there will be enough to turn that page.

RUSH: You’re exactly right, though. The blue wave is predicated on two things. And the first is the anger that they lost. They were convinced they were gonna win. They were convinced Hillary was gonna win in such a landslide that the Republican Party was gonna cease to exist, in all practical ways. And so the opposite happened, and they haven’t gotten over it, and they’re hell-bent to reverse it.

The second aspect of the blue wave, they’re telling us, is that so many of you who voted for Trump are so mad and you’re so let down, and you feel so betrayed, and you are embarrassed, you’re embarrassed at the tweets, you’re embarrassed at the mean-spirited comments he makes, and you regret voting. You can’t wait. You’re embarrassed. You’re not gonna show up because you don’t want to run the risk of being seen at the polls, even. That’s how bad it is for Trump. And that’s what they’re trying to make people believe.

Now, the Democrat rage, we’re told that there is this gigantic resistance and that they’re motivated, inspired, and they’ve got all the energy, and there isn’t any on the Republican side because of Trump embarrassment. And there’s another thing. Human nature causes complacency. When you win, say in 2016, you win, okay, you don’t need to go out and do it again two years later; you won. There just isn’t that same motivation. But that’s traditional swamp thinking.

There are enough elections that have taken place here — like there was an election in Tennessee last week, and do you know the Republican turnout was double what the Democrat turnout was? Now, it’s Tennessee. But still. If the Democrat resistance is the Democrat resistance and if they’re motivated and inspired and they can’t wait to vote, where were they in Tennessee? And there’s some other places where the turnout in some of these special elections, some of these primaries have not been what the experts have forecast.

Anything’s possible. But I’m pretty confident that one of the things that’s happening is that the Beltway professionals are still not accounting for, and don’t know how to account for, the Trump Effect. You know, I talked to Trump last Wednesday, and he was even not sure that support for him is going to transfer in the midterms, which he’s talking about his coattails. He isn’t on the ballot.

So people that show up are gonna have to essentially vote to send Republicans to Washington to help Trump. Trump is gonna be doing rallies after rallies after rallies. He is going to be campaigning as energetically as he was during presidential race, because he needs his voters to realize that he may not be on the ballot but his agenda is and it’s got to be Republicans that maintain control of the House and Senate for the agenda to have the chance.

‘Cause if it doesn’t, if the Democrats win the House, Mueller’s gonna write a report, and it’s gonna talk about how Trump was lackadaisical, he’s hiring people that might have had connections to Russia and didn’t know it. He’s not gonna be indicted. He’s not gonna be impeached. Well, they might impeach if they win the House. But he’s not gonna be convicted. Trump knows he’s not gonna be indicted. He knows he’s not gonna be thrown out of office. That’s why he continues to talk this way. He knows that those things are not gonna happen.

The ultimate objective at the get go of this was to drive him from office with low approval numbers by turning public opinion against him, and that hasn’t worked, either. But if the Democrats win the House, they’re gonna be doing oversight, you’re gonna hear committees you never heard of before investigating this and subpoenaing that. You’re gonna see an administration brought to a screeching halt by way of Democrat oversight.

Now, I don’t know whether Trump ought to make that part of his campaign message, but that word’s got to get out, too, because not only will the Republicans lose control, but the Trump agenda is gonna come to a screeching halt. There won’t be a wall. There won’t be any funding for the wall. The Democrats are not gonna go for that. They’re gonna use the opportunity, if they win the House, to shut down everything in the Trump agenda and do nothing but investigate him and investigate everybody that’s had anything to do with him. I mean, Congress is going to — they’re probably not gonna very many sessions. It’s gonna be all committees, all the time. Oversight, subpoena power.

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