Contradictory Polling Data Doesn’t Compute

0
141

RUSH: Now, let me share with you a couple of stories today on the polling leading up to the midterms, ’cause it is all over the place and it is contradictory as it can be.

FiveThirtyEight. This is the adored and the indispensable and eagerly anticipated Nate Silver, who has now said the Democrats have an 85% chance of winning control of the House of Representatives. The Republicans have only a 14.5% chance of keeping the House. This is almost identical to FiveThirtyEight’s forecasting two weeks before the presidential election in 2016 where Hillary Clinton had anywhere from an 88% to a 92% chance of winning the presidency, and Trump had — what — 12% to 8% chance of winning, which was effectively zero.

Even on Election Day throughout the day, that is how FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times reported it, and we all know what happened. Charlie Cook (considered the dean of political analysts) and his company analyze races, individual House races and Senate races and reports on which way they’re gonna go. “Cook Political Report on Tuesday shifted eight House races toward Democrats and two in favor of Republicans with 14 days to go before the midterm elections.

“The nonpartisan election forecaster…” There is no such thing, and Charlie Cook is not nonpartisan. Charlie Cook cares about the outcome of this stuff. Charlie Cook is not nonpartisan, but that’s how this stuff gets reported. “The nonpartisan election forecaster projected Democrats will have an edge in key swing districts following the party’s massive fundraising haul in the third quarter of this year.” So those are the two stories.

But then if you turn to NBC News and the Wall Street Journal, “Blue Wave Collapsing? Early Voting Shows GOP Outpacing Dems in Key States,” and this story is even prepared and written as another sign that this so-called blue wave — eagerly anticipated blue wave — could end up disappointing people next month if it arrives at all. “NBC News has looked at early voting data (provided by a company called TargetSmart) in eight states and found that GOP-affiliated voters are outpacing Democratic voters in seven of those,” including North Carolina.

“GOP-affiliated voters have surpassed Democratic-affiliated ones in early voting in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas,” also North Carolina. “Only in Nevada have Democratic-affiliated voters exceeded Republican-affiliated voters so far in early voting, according to the data… The latest data,” this from NBC, “suggests robust enthusiasm among early Republican voters that could put a dent in Democratic hopes for a ‘blue wave’ in next month’s midterm elections.

“Republicans typically dominate early voting by absentee ballots, while Democrats tend to have the advantage with in-person early voting. So, for example, the entire early voting picture in Florida, which has yet to begin in-person voting, is incomplete.” Now, that’s somewhat of an important point there, because it’s not just that the Republicans are doing better than Democrats in these states. It is that early voting almost always favors Democrats.

The usual pattern for all of this stuff is for Democrats to drum up an early lead because of early voting and the Republicans have to then make up for that on Election Day itself. But that’s not what we’re seeing here. And again, this is NBC News. So the question here… It’s hard to apply this to actual election outcomes. There’s too much we don’t know. But one thing we do know: This is not according to conventional wisdom.

Conventional wisdom is and conventional wisdom has been that Republican enthusiasm is kind of suppressed, that Democrat enthusiasm is off the charts, that the Democrats have been so motivated ever since they got screwed in 2016. Ever since Trump and the Russians stole that election from ’em, the Democrats have been motivated like you can’t believe to get out there and make this right and correct it and fix it. They have been inspired. They’ve been energized.

They’ve been motivated. They’ve been donating. They cannot wait. And yet in eight key Republican states — key, key battleground states — Republican early voting is dwarfing Democrat early voting and violating all established norms, all statistical norms. Now, how do you factor this? This is the kind of result, the kind of thing that’s happening that nobody in conventional Washington — elitist, establishment Washington — would ever think would happen.

These people come up with their story; they stick with it, even if it means they’re lying to themselves about it. Like, for example, if they get it in their heads that everybody hates Trump and that hatred for Trump has grown and magnified over two years, that, therefore, there’s going to be this massive turnout among Democrats, can’t wait to vote, energize them. They get that in their heads and they believe it. And then the exact opposite happens, and they don’t know what to do about it.

And they get nonplussed and a little concerned about it, which is where they are now. And I’ve shared with you yesterday, there’s a lot of stories about the blue wave not happening, that it simply doesn’t look like it is materializing. Here is the Washington Post: “Battleground House Districts Remain Close in New Poll,” and over here we got The Cook Report: “Eight More Seats Flip Democrat.”

How many seats are left to flip Democratic? If you listen to The Cook Report, every seat’s gone Democrat by now — and if you listen to Nate Silver, there’s an 85, 86% chance the Republicans lose the House, 86% the Democrats win? How does all this fit together? Well, it doesn’t, obviously. If Republican early voting is outdistancing Democrat early voting (and Democrats have always owned that), it must mean that something is drastically wrong here.

Something is terribly wrong in the formula, for this kind of Republican enthusiasm — in an off year, midterm election, where so many people, quote-unquote, “hate Trump” — this doesn’t compute. There ought not be this much Republican early voting action. There ought not be anywhere near this kind of enthusiasm.

Yet last night in Houston you had 17/18,000 people inside — 25,000 people, I’m told, outside — for a raucous rally where Trump was “spreading lies and stoking fears,” according to the American Media. And about that. Slowly but surely the media, the RINOs, the Never Trumpers are telling us what it actually is they hate about Donald Trump. I’ll tell you what that is soon.

BREAK TRANSCRIPT

RUSH: I misspoke, but not by much. Nate Silver back in 2016 on this date, very close to this date had Hillary Clinton 86% chance of winning the White House, same thing as 86% today the Democrats win the House. It’s almost identical: An 86% chance Hillary wins the presidency two years ago to the day, and 86% the Democrats win the House.

BREAK TRANSCRIPT

RUSH: This was last night on Hannity. He had the Mooch on, Anthony Scaramucci. This guy is incredible. Scaramucci could pass for 18 years old except that he’s not. He’s got one of these eternally youthful appearances. He’s a former White House communications director for Trump for about 18 days, and he’s got a new book out. I forget the title of it, but he’s making his rounds.

He was on Hannity last night, and Hannity said, “Why do the Democrats even have a shot in 15 days?” and it’s a question a lot of people are asking. Who in the world would vote for Democrats? Why would you vote for anybody that is promising to wipe out all the progress? Why would you vote for any party that wants to literally shut down the progress? And here’s what the Mooch had to say.

SCARAMUCCI: It’s because of the media, probably, Sean. That could be one of the main reasons. Most people predict that the House and so forth goes to the other side. But the president is demonstrating that he can get the voter turnout even in a midterm election. So I think it’s gonna be very close. I mean, you’re not gonna be surprised, our friends are not gonna be surprised, Rush Limbaugh is not gonna be surprised if the Democrats don’t win or don’t get that blue wave.

RUSH: Yeah. Again, conflicting news. If you missed the beginning of the program, there’s Charlie Cook, who is the inside-the-Beltway guru in analyzing and predicting the outcome of off-year election, well, any election. And then you have the… What was it? Oh, yeah, Nate Silver. Eighty-five percent chance the Democrats win the House. And Cook as identified eight more seats tending Democrat. I don’t know how many are left to go Democrat. The last I looked these guys had 209 seats leaning Democrat. I mean, practically over. And yet NBC has a poll out showing early voting and enthusiasm, the Republicans are dwarfing Democrats in early vote. That never happens. Joe Biden and Obama can’t draw flies to the rallies they’re having for Democrat candidates, and Trump can’t get a venue big enough to let everybody in. So it’s confusing. I myself, again, state I will not be surprised if this blue wave doesn’t materialize to be anything.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here