My Take on Allan Lichtman’s Prediction

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RUSH: My adopted hometown, Sacramento, California. This is Jennifer. Great to have you. You’re the first call today, Jennifer. Hi.

CALLER: Hi, Rush. So excited to get through today. I heard a blurb on our local station today about a professor who supposedly made many predictions for presidential winners and losers, Allan Lichtman, and he is predicting that Biden is gonna win.

RUSH: Yeah, I saw that.

CALLER: Yeah. So I was hoping you were gonna weigh in on that today. I’m just wondering what your thoughts are.

RUSH: Well, I’m glad you called. Actually, I was not gonna weigh in on it ’cause this guy’s a little bit of a — I wasn’t gonna weigh in on it today, but that’s what Open Line Friday is. If you want to ask, I’ll be glad to answer it. Allan Lichtman. Some people pronounce it Lichtman. And he does have this reputation that he has yet to be wrong in predicting presidential — I forget the criteria he uses.

There’s a lot of these guys, Jennifer, that do this, and they try to compare or analyze presidential elections in some cases using the economy and its performance in the six months prior to the election or its performance in the two years prior. Others have an entirely different set of criteria they look at. I don’t remember what Lichtman’s is. I don’t know what his database, data set is that he looks at. But these kinds of things — if the predictor comes out and says what you want to happen, then you revel in it.

“Hey, this guy, this guy, he’s never been wrong, this guy’s calling –” there’s always a chance that he could be wrong the first time. So I don’t put a whole lot of stock in it, and nobody knows the future. There isn’t anybody who slam-bang with ontological certitude knows the future. I wouldn’t be worried about it if I were you, Jennifer. I don’t even think, aside from the virus — I still believe that there are a bunch of things that are gonna have an impact on this election that haven’t even happened yet, things that Lichtman couldn’t even know about nor anybody else.

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