What Blue Wave?

0
239

RUSH: In Florida, in the governor’s primaries yesterday, we had an interesting battle shaping up. Ron DeSantis, who, full disclosure, I know, and I have played a couple rounds of golf with. I call him Governor on the golf course. He doesn’t say, “Don’t say that.” He’ll make a good shot, “Way to go, Governor.” He’s a nice guy. I like him a lot. I’ve met his wife.

But, as you know, I don’t endorse during primaries, and I didn’t. But Trump did. Trump did an appearance for DeSantis and Trump heartily endorsed DeSantis. DeSantis was double digits down when Trump starts working for him and DeSantis wins by double digits. Now, who in the Republican Party can do that?

Now, we’re told that, you know, Trump’s not what he was. People have lost their luster for Trump. You know, all this rigmarole from the left. That people are fed up with Trump, that people wish they could get their vote back, that Trump embarrasses them. You know the drill.

Except when you look at polling data, 90% of Republicans maintain that they are in total sync with Trump and completely approve of the job he’s doing, 90%. What other Republican could take a fellow Republican double digits down and convert that into a double-digit victory? Could Mitch McConnell do it? Could Paul Ryan do it? Who could do this?

But the interesting thing, in addition to that, is the turnout: 1,602,000 votes on the Republican side; 1,480,000 on the Democrat sides. I’m trying to do the math in my head here. That’s a significant turnout advantage for the Republicans in a state the Democrats claim that they’re gonna win because the people of Florida are also fed up with Trump.

This blue wave was supposed to be massively overwhelming the Republicans in turnout, and it didn’t happen. Republican turnout, as I say, 1.6 million; we’ll round the Democrats up to 1.5. So basically, you know, 116,000 votes more on the Republican side than the Democrat side. And in Arizona, another Republican blowout. So 124,000 in Florida. The Republicans outturned the Democrats by 100,000 in the Arizona governor’s race.

But yet we’ve been hearing about blue wave, blue wave, blue wave ever since last December when the first generic ballot polling data was released. We’ve continued to hear about blue wave. And of course we would because the media is not at all objective and is simply now carrying the agenda of the Democrat Party, I think actually leading it, but that’s neither here nor there.

So in two states where the Democrats planned on making big bank, where the Democrats planned on turning things around, there was greater Republican turnout than there was Democrat turnout. Now, this is not enough to suggest that there’s gonna be a red wave. I fall back to my standard operating procedure on this, and that is nobody knows what’s gonna happen. But I can tell you one thing that the media is saying that isn’t true.

The media is relying on age-old formulas which say that the first off-year election after a new president is elected, the president’s party traditionally loses 15 seats. They say the reason for this is that voters in the president’s party lose enthusiasm. They secured the victory for the president in the presidential race, and so the next midterms two years after the presidential election, they’re not nearly as fired up. They’ve become complacent, and they don’t realize the dangers that lie ahead.

I’m sorry. You gotta throw that formula out with Trump. You have to throw out much of the conventional wisdom and formulaic thinking that has existed inside the Washington establishment for years. The Trump voter is not complacent. Trump voters are not sitting at home fat, dumb, and happy thinking that the contests are over, that their work is done. They are far more sophisticated than that.

Not only that, the Drive-By Media each and every day keeps the Republican base fired up, motivated, inspired, and even angry, far more than they know.

You know, the subject of media bias is often discussed. And you’ve heard the leftists and the media say, “We’re not biased.” In a psychological sense, people who are biased may actually not know it. And I find people on the left, particularly the higher up you go in the food chain on the left, the more ignorant they are about people not like them. They don’t socialize with them. They make no effort to understand them. They never come in contact with people who are not like them.

So what do they think of people not like them? That’s where the bias is. They think that they’re whatever they think they are. And then they attach their formulas to it. And so the media and the Democrat Party firmly believe that Trump’s voters are a bunch of idiots because conservative voters are idiots. Trump voters are even bigger idiots because who could not be an idiot to vote for Trump? They’ve never taken the time to learn who Trump voters are; they’ve never spent any time with them; they’re not curious; they don’t care.

And that’s the bias. They attach all these old formulas, and they continue to apply conventional inside-the-Beltway wisdom to an outsider candidate and campaign the likes of which they still don’t understand and still resent.

So I’m here to tell you that the primary foundational belief of their formula that the blue wave is gonna happen, the fact that they are more motivated and more inspired, Democrat voters, and that Republican voters, Trump voters don’t realize the importance of the election or they’re not inspired ’cause they already won two years ago, not true.

I think the Drive-By Media itself keeps Republicans, slash, conservatives, slash, Trump voters fired up 24/7. I think, in fact, that many Republicans, slash, Trump, slash conservative voters can’t wait to vote just to stick it to the media! Even if some of them may have lost a little of their fervor for Trump, they still resent the hell out of the way the media is participating in this silent coup to destroy the guy they elected and to overturn an election that they won.

I don’t think motivated Republicans are gonna be a problem. I don’t think a lack of motivation or lack of inspiration — and at the same time, I’m not sure I buy into this notion that the left is so chomping at the bit, it’s a bunch of Secretariats out there in the starting gate; they just can’t wait. The turnout in special elections, the Democrats, were not appreciably higher. In some of these primary elections that we’ve had, we don’t see any evidence of blowouts on the basis of turnout. And we certainly didn’t see it yesterday.

But, see, the difference is they are closed-minded about it. And you can’t talk them out of their belief that the midterms are essentially already over and that the Democrats are gonna take the House. And they can’t wait to start these investigations and paralyze Trump and maybe finally get rid of him. You can’t convince them that their stereotypical, statistically formulaic, old-fashioned views, you can’t convince them that they may not be able to rely on ’em.

So they continue to report the news, they continue to do what they do with the belief that, like them, everybody now has become totally disgusted with Trump. And they’re missing. And it’s right in front of their face, even after these elections yesterday, in Florida and Arizona, even with the turnout deferential, they’re still gonna be in denial about it. I’ve seen it on CNN. They come up with all kinds of cockamamie excuses to explain it.

The number one excuse is, “Well, come on. This is a special election turnout. It’s gonna be much different in November. You wait. We can’t judge anything.” Every election that’s coming up they predict that they’re gonna win it going away. Turnout, votes, you name it, it’s gonna be a slam dunk. When they lose it or when the turnout’s not what they think it is, they fall back to, “Well, it doesn’t matter. This is not the kind of turnout where we’re expecting this blue wave. That’ll happen in November. You can’t judge anything by these primaries or special elections.”

You can’t? See, every time they lose an election, that election doesn’t count, that turnout model doesn’t matter. It can’t be right. They continue to live in denial about why they’re losing. So we shall see. I still believe that we haven’t yet had the events that are going to shape the outcome in the election in the midterms, in November. I believe it’s still dicey to start polling people here in late August and to try to attach any solid meaning to that.

Although I will say one thing. I think that the media’s behavior, the behavior of Democrat Party, the whole Washington establishment, I think one thing you can count on is that Republican, slash, Trump voters are fed up now, and they’re gonna stay fed up through November — it doesn’t matter — because the media’s gonna keep lighting a fire under ’em every day, multiple times a day.

BREAK TRANSCRIPT

RUSH: Do you think McCain could have taken a gubernatorial candidate down double digits in preelection polling and turned him into a double-digit winner? I’m just asking.

BREAK TRANSCRIPT

RUSH: Everybody’s all excited about the Florida governor’s race, Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, versus Andrew Gillum. That’s Bernie Sanders and George Soros. And that’s how people are looking at this. And, yeah, I mean, that’s gonna become conventional wisdom. It’s Trump versus Soros, it’s Trump versus Crazy Bernie. What it’s gonna be is the American founding versus Venezuela, the American founding versus socialism. That’s what it’s gonna be.

I understand the desire people have to personalize this, you know, attach celebrities or personalities to the vote and so forth, but the substance of the governors election in Florida is real simple. It’s conservative, slash, the founding of America type government type of country versus this new brand of Democrat socialism, which is being advocated by the likes of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. And we will see as time unfolds.

BREAK TRANSCRIPT

RUSH: Now, to go back to the red wave and blue wave business. Again, if you weren’t here during the first hour, we talked about the governor’s races, the primaries in both Florida and Arizona. And in both states, Republican turnout dwarfed Democrat turnout. Not supposed to be the case. We’re supposed to be at the very beginning here of a blue wave.

Democrat voter enthusiasm is supposed to be uncontainable. Democrat voters are just so chomping at the bit that they can’t be held back. If the election were today, they’d be out there in droves ready to set turnout records. People can’t wait, they hate Trump so much. So many people that voted for Trump feel bad they did, they can’t wait to correct their mistake, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

And yet here come these elections, and the turnout story is entirely different. In Florida, 124,000 more Republican votes in the governor primary than Democrat voters; in Arizona, a hundred thousand more. How do you get a blue wave out of that?

So let’s go to the audio sound bites. Eamon Javers is a Washington correspondent CNBC. And he was on Squawk Box on CNBC this morning, and the cohostette, Becky Quick is talking to Eamon Javers about last night’s results in Florida. Question: “When you see the polls getting it wrong all over again –” by the way, have you seen the media reference that? They’re being set up and let down again by their own polls.

Why did Hillary lose? I’ve always maintained that one of the big problems the Democrats had in 2016 — and they had a lot — they believed their polls! I think their own media sunk ’em! I think their own polling units and their own expert polling, scientific analysts made them think they couldn’t lose. Why else would Hillary not go to a bunch of states? Unless she physically was unable to, which may be true.

They thought they had it in the bag! They thought it was a landslide! Trump didn’t even have a 10% chance of winning. You remember all that. And I think that Hillary and her camp believed it! Why wouldn’t they believe their own buddies in the media? And it’s happening again. The polling data is almost an exact replica of 2016. And so Eamon Javers here is being asked to explain this.

JAVERS: Polling has gotten a little bit hairy here. We don’t quite have full transparency to what’s going on with voters. In this case, Gillum didn’t lead in any national polls going into this race; so the question is what were the pollsters actually capturing going into this race? You’re seeing a surge in turnouts. You’re seeing a lot of people showing up to vote who pollsters might not have expected to show up to vote.

RUSH: Really?

JAVERS: So that tilts everything. The other thing is just the rise of cell phones and how hard it is for people to be contacted these days. People don’t answer their phones and a lot of people simply don’t —

QUICK: Good reason.

JAVERS: — talk to pollsters who call them at night.

RUSH: It’s the cell phone excuse! Damn it, I forgot. It’s the cell phone excuse. They can’t find you because there isn’t a white pages for cell phone numbers. I forgot. That’s the excuse. They can’t reach you. What a bunch of bohunk. Every scammer in the world can find your cell phone number, but pollsters can’t? It’s a fallback excuse. The guy said it right here. “You’re seeing a surge in turnout. Seeing a lot of people showing up to vote that pollsters might not have expected to show.” Who might they be? I think he’s talking about Republicans. He didn’t say that.

But the Drive-Bys really think that you’re fat, dumb, and happy or satisfied or lackadaisical or you think you’ve already won it. You’re too dumb and stupid to know that your president still needs your vote. That’s it. You’re too unsophisticated, too stupid to know that your party needs your votes again. You’re just gonna sit back and let the Democrats and these insane, lunatic socialists take back your country!

It doesn’t make any sense, unless you believe in ages-old conventional wisdom formula and theory about off-year elections, which they obviously do. And Eamon Javers was not finished. He suggests, you know what? There could even be a red wave out here, Becky.

JAVERS: Right. The other factor is that people are just not telling pollsters the truth, right? Some people won’t say exactly who they’re voting for, will suggest they’re gonna vote for somebody and then turn around and vote for somebody else because they feel that’s the appropriate answer to give the pollster and in their heart of hearts they want to vote another way. And so all of that creates a cloudy picture going into November. You know, there’s all this talk of “is there a blue wave, is there a red wave.” And I don’t think —

QUICK: Kind of hard to figure out.

JAVERS: — we really know.

RUSH: She says, “Yeah, kind of hard to figure out.” And Eamon Javers says, “I don’t think we really know.” After all of this time, “We don’t really know.” Well, now, how much ontological certitude have these people had for the past number of months reporting on the blue wave? It’s been a fait accompli, has it not? Now all of a sudden — I’m gonna tell you, when they saw those turnout numbers in the gubernatorial primary in Florida and Arizona, I guarantee you they were choking on whatever they were chewing or drinking.

I mean, folks, they believe their own PR. They believe their own drivel. They believe their own polling data. They believe that they have succeeded in rallying this Democrat base. They believe that Democrat and anti-Trump haters cannot wait to get out and vote. And they believe that there are millions and millions and millions more of them than there are Trump voters. They believe it! They’re not curious enough to challenge themselves. So when they saw these turnout numbers, panic, anger, disbelief, what have you.

Mr. Newt weighing in on all this. Fox & Friends today, Brian Kilmeade. “Interesting matchup in Florida, Mr. Newt. The gubernatorial race is gonna be Bernie Sanders against Donald Trump using surrogates. You think that’s the way to look at it?”

GINGRICH: Florida, when people start talking about a blue wave, you gotta point out to them, Florida is likely to be a desert island for the Democrats with no wave at all, given these kind of outcomes. And, by the way, in Arizona, President Trump was very gracious and supportive of Congresswoman McSally. She was the first woman to fly in combat and has a remarkable record. I think she’s gonna win the Senate race there. And again, the so-called blue wave is gonna disappear in the sand. And I think you’re gonna see, if anything, more of a red wave by the time we get to November than a blue wave.

RUSH: Mr. Newt making it official, going out there on the sand claiming a red wave. Now, this Florida governor’s race, Ron DeSantis, just to review, DeSantis was double digits down against Putnam. And then Trump comes to Tampa, does a rally for DeSantis with DeSantis there. DeSantis has some pretty cool TV ads that have been running in Florida, if I must say so myself. And Putnam’s are not bad. He’s a good guy as well. But DeSantis ends up winning in double digits. So he’s got a Republican President, Donald Trump, takes DeSantis down double digits to victory in double digits. Is there any Republican that could have done that?

Now, ten years ago, eight, could John McCain have done it? Could Obama do it on the Democrat side? There’s no way. Obama’s an albatross around Democrat candidates that he endorsed, as was Bill Clinton. So now it’s Donald Trump versus Bernie Sanders, it’s Donald Trump versus George Soros. Is that how you see the Florida governor’s race? This is another thing they do. It’s not Donald Trump versus Bernie Sanders!

It’s Ron DeSantis versus this Gillum guy, Andrew Gillum. And Andrew Gillum is promising to go the direction of Venezuela. He’s promising to impeach Trump. He’s promising to roll back tax cuts. Has a promising Medicare for all. He’s promising all these leftist, socialist things. Now, you might want to say it’s Bernie Sanders’ ideology versus Trump’s, but it isn’t. It’s the demonstrable, abject failure of socialism versus the conservatism of the American founding. That’s what the election is.

It’s DeSantis versus Gillum. But note, they have to try to dress this all up. And by putting Bernie’s name in there instead of the candidates, they’re trying to rely on the popularity of Crazy Bernie to draw out young people to vote for Gillum. They play tricks like that.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here